Could Arsenal Miss Out on Next Season’s Champions League?
Arsenal
‘s 2024-25 season seems destined for a disappointing finish without any trophies following their Champions League semi-final exit – but might it culminate in utter calamity instead?
Arteta’s Arsenal team appeared to secure the second-place position as they maintained this ranking throughout most of the season. However, their recent dip in performance has put them at risk of dropping further down the standings.
Finishing in second place, along with unforgettable memories from their Champions League victory against titleholders Real Madrid, would have been considered a worthwhile outcome for a season marred by unfortunate injury setbacks.
Is it possible for Arsenal to miss out on the Champions League positions by the end of it all? We’ve examined the scenario closely.
The run-in
After securing the championship well ahead of schedule due to Arsenal’s inability to string together a consistent series of wins throughout the season, Liverpool’s performance in the Premier League has notably declined, especially as they focused considerable attention on their UEFA Champions League efforts.
They have suffered three consecutive losses across all competitions, with only one victory in their past five matches in the Premier League (and three wins out of ten games). If Arsenal wants to prevent slipping down the standings, Arteta needs to see an improvement in his team’s performance.
With their exit from the Champions League, Arsenal’s schedule has become more straightforward. They have three matches in the Premier League over three consecutive weekends. This provides ample opportunity for players to recover and regain their energy.
Initially, Arsenal will go against Liverpool, who plan to present a ceremonial welcome for Arne Slot’s title-winning team.
You envision thatSlotwill opt for minimal alterations fromlastweek’s lineupagainstChelseaand seek to seal theirPremierLeaguechampionshipwithastrongperformanceinfrontofanenergeticAnfieldcrowd.
Certainly, this is a challenging test for Arsenal, yet they should draw encouragement from their performance in crucial matches; they haven’t lost a league game against another ‘big six’ side in more than two years.
Next, Arsenal will face Newcastle at home, who might potentially end up with more points than them and are eager to secure a spot in the Champions League themselves.
Recently, Newcastle United has caused troubles for Arsenal, managing to defeat them in all three encounters they’ve had this season (a Premier League match at St. James’ Park and both fixtures of the EFL Cup semi-finals).
There will be significant pressure if Arsenal loses either of their upcoming matches, but they might find some respite when finishing the season away against Southampton – one of the weakest teams in Premier League history, having secured only two victories this campaign and now matching Derby County’s record for the fewest points ever tallied in a single season.
The Saints are certain to finish at the bottom of this season’s standings.
The chasing pack
Thanks to Arsenal’s impressive performance in Europe, UEFA’s coefficient ranking has granted the Premier League another spot for next season’s Champions League.
Finishing fifth will be sufficient to secure a spot in the Champions League, which implies that at least four teams must surpass Arsenal in the standings during the closing stages of the season if they are to unexpectedly fall out of contention.
Manchester City appears to be the frontrunner. With just a three-point gap between them and they’re currently performing exceptionally well. Under Pep Guardiola’s leadership, the team has secured victories in each of their past four league matches, advanced to the FA Cup final, and faces a favorable schedule ahead with upcoming games against Southampton as an away fixture, followed by hosting Bournemouth, and concluding with an away match against Fulham.
Before Newcastle’s recent draw against Brighton, they were in second place ununderheir control. However, they trail Arsenal by just four points and could reduce this gap to one point with a victory at the Emirates Stadium.
They might relocate there and if they manage to defeat both Chelsea and Arsenal while these teams lose points at Anfield this weekend, they could rise in the standings. Eddie Howe’s team will face Everton in their last match of the season.
If Arsenal are monitoring Chelsea’s position, then playing Newcastle this weekend is advantageous for Chelsea. It ensures that at least one of these teams—possibly both—will likely lose points, which which some strain off when they all play again later that same day in Merseyside.
Recently, The Blues have appeared lackluster, but they’ve managed to turn things around just in time with three consecutive league victories. However, they still trail Arsenal by four points and will be facing tough matches against both Manchester United at home and Nottingham Forest away following their game in Tyneside.
Forest and Aston Villa form the tail end of teams competing for Champions League qualification, yet their sights seem better set on catching Newcastle and Chelsea rather than focusing directly on Arsenal. They trail each team by six and seven points respectively.
What do Arsenal need?
Stats firm OPTA
think that Arsenal have a more than 99.9% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
You can consider every possible scenario, but the basic truth remains: securing a victory against an extremely poor Southampton on the last matchday would suffice. Regardless of whether they lose to both Liverpool and Newcastle, this would still put them at 70 points.
Villa can achieve a maximum of 69 points if they win all their remaining matches, whereas Forest could potentially reach 70 points (however, they trail by 21 goals in difference).
Chelsea’s matches with Newcastle and Forest indicate that finishing fifth will likely be the worst possible position for Arsenal. They probably have secured enough points for Champions League qualification regardless.
With two tricky games coming up, injuries biting and questionable form, it’s not out of the question that Man City and Newcastle or Chelsea catch them. But given they play one another, we’ll surely not see both Newcastle
and
Chelsea do it. OPTA place Arsenal’s chances of finishing fifth at just 1.1%.
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TRY A QUIZ:
Could you list all the teams that have eliminated Arsenal from the Champions League since the year 2000?